Draw Odds Explained: How Preference Points Work
Preference points, bonus points, weighted draws, and squared systems — how every Western state's tag allocation works and how to build a strategy that actually gets you a tag.
Every year, hundreds of thousands of hunters submit applications for limited-entry big game tags across the West. Most of those applications go into a draw — a system where tags are allocated based on some combination of random chance and accumulated points. The hunters who understand how these systems actually work build smarter strategies, avoid wasting years in the wrong draw, and fill tags faster than those who apply blindly.
The problem is that every state runs its draw differently. Colorado uses weighted preference points. Wyoming uses a preference/random hybrid. Montana has bonus points with a squared system. Arizona runs bonus points. Idaho has a separate zone-based system. And New Mexico skips points entirely in favor of a pure lottery.
This guide explains how each major system works, where the math actually matters, and how to plan a multi-state strategy that maximizes your chances of hunting the West every year — not once a decade.
What Are Preference Points?
Preference points are accumulated credits that improve your draw odds. You earn one point for each year you apply unsuccessfully (or buy a point-only application). The more points you have, the better your odds of drawing a tag.
But “better odds” means dramatically different things depending on the state’s system. In a true preference system, the highest-point holders draw first. In a bonus system, points merely weight your odds. The distinction matters enormously.
Two Core Systems: Preference vs Bonus
| Feature | Preference Points | Bonus Points |
|---|---|---|
| How tags are allocated | Highest-point applicants draw first | Points weight random draw (more points = more entries) |
| Guaranteed draw? | Yes, eventually (once you have enough points) | No — every applicant has some chance regardless of points |
| Point creep risk | High — point thresholds rise as more hunters build points | Lower — randomness prevents pure threshold effects |
| Zero-point applicant chance | Very low for premium units (near zero) | Small but real chance every year |
| States using this | Colorado, Wyoming (75% of tags), Idaho | Montana, Arizona, New Mexico (no points, pure lottery) |
Preference points mean patience is rewarded with certainty. Build enough points and you will draw — it’s a matter of when, not if. The downside: “enough points” for top units can mean 20+ years, and point creep means the goalpost moves while you’re chasing it.
Bonus points mean every year is a new chance, weighted by your history. A hunter with 15 bonus points has much better odds than a zero-point applicant, but the zero-point applicant can still draw a Unit 61 elk tag. The randomness cuts both ways.
How Every Major State’s Draw System Works
Colorado — Weighted Preference Points
Colorado’s system is the most widely misunderstood. It’s labeled “preference” but operates on a weighted model, not a pure preference model.
How it works:
- 80% of tags go to the draw pool. 20% go to nonresidents (within that draw pool).
- Your name goes into the draw once for each preference point you hold, plus one base entry.
- A hunter with 10 points gets 11 entries. A hunter with 0 points gets 1 entry.
- Top-point holders aren’t guaranteed to draw first — they just have the most tickets in the hat.
In practice: For premium units with hundreds of applicants per tag, the weighted system behaves almost identically to true preference. A 20-point applicant has such overwhelming odds relative to a 5-point applicant that the top-point holders draw consistently. But for less competitive units, lower-point applicants draw regularly.
Point cost: $100/year for nonresidents, $40/year for residents. Applied to elk, deer, antelope, moose, goat, sheep, and bear separately.
Strategy: Apply for units where your point total is competitive, or buy a point-only each year while hunting OTC. Use the Draw Odds Engine to check the point threshold for your target unit.
Full Colorado draw odds and application guide
Wyoming — Preference/Random Hybrid
Wyoming splits its draw into two pools, making it one of the fairest systems in the West.
How it works:
- 75% of tags go to the “preference” pool (highest-point applicants draw first)
- 25% of tags go to the “random” pool (all applicants, regardless of points, drawn randomly)
- Within the preference pool, ties are broken randomly
- Within the random pool, bonus points weight your odds
What this means: Even with zero points, you have a shot at any unit through the 25% random pool. Meanwhile, dedicated point builders can still plan toward specific units through the preference pool.
Point cost: $100/year for nonresidents.
Special tag: Wyoming’s Special Management Permits and Super Tags are separate from the regular draw and operate as pure lotteries.
Strategy: Wyoming rewards both patience and opportunism. Build points for your dream unit in the preference pool while taking a shot at premium units through the random pool every year. The dual-pool system means your points are never “wasted” on a random entry — they are used in the preference pool while you simultaneously enter the random pool.
Full Wyoming draw odds and application guide
Montana — Bonus Points (Squared)
Montana’s bonus point system adds a mathematical twist that aggressively favors long-term applicants.
How it works:
- All tags are drawn randomly, but your number of entries equals your bonus points squared.
- A hunter with 5 bonus points gets 25 entries (5 x 5). A hunter with 10 bonus points gets 100 entries (10 x 10).
- A zero-point applicant gets 1 entry.
- The squaring function means the advantage accelerates exponentially as you build points.
Why the squaring matters: In a linear bonus system, a 10-point applicant has 10x the odds of a zero-point applicant. In Montana’s squared system, a 10-point applicant has 100x the odds. This gives long-term applicants a massive advantage while still preserving a theoretical chance for newcomers.
Point cost: $100/year for nonresidents for deer/elk combo.
General tags: Montana also offers general elk and deer tags over the counter. These cover huge areas of the state and provide solid hunting without ever entering the draw. The limited-entry draw primarily applies to premium areas and special permits.
Strategy: Build points annually. Hunt on a general tag every year while your bonus points compound. When your squared point total gives you strong odds for a premium district, put in for the draw. Montana rewards the hunter who hunts every year, not the one who sits on the sideline building points.
Arizona — Bonus Points (Loyalty System)
Arizona runs a pure bonus point system with a loyalty bonus for consistent applicants.
How it works:
- Each bonus point gives you one additional entry in the random draw.
- Applicants who have applied for 5+ consecutive years receive a loyalty bonus that further increases entries.
- 20% of permits are set aside for applicants with maximum bonus points.
- 80% of permits go into the general bonus draw.
Why Arizona is special: Arizona produces some of the largest elk in North America from units with 80-95% success rates. The trade-off is that tags are extremely limited. Some premium bull elk units issue fewer than 20 nonresident tags per year, with thousands of applicants. Even with 20 bonus points, your odds for the best units may be under 5%.
Point cost: $93.75/year for nonresidents.
Strategy: Arizona is a long game. Apply every year, build points, and understand that top units may take 15-25 years to draw. The upside: when you draw, you’re virtually guaranteed a shot at a 350+ class bull. Arizona is worth the wait if you’re the type of hunter who wants one incredible hunt rather than annual average hunts.
Idaho — Zone-Based Draw
Idaho operates differently from most Western states, using a zone-based system without traditional preference points for most species.
How it works:
- Idaho divides the state into zones for elk and deer.
- General-season tags cover wide areas and are available OTC in many zones.
- Controlled hunts (specific units within zones) use a draw with no preference points for most species.
- Moose, goat, and sheep use a preference point system.
- Some controlled hunts set aside tags for first-choice applicants, while others use a weighted system.
Point cost: $36.25/year for nonresidents (species that use points).
Strategy: Idaho is one of the most accessible Western states for nonresidents. General tags cover vast areas with solid elk populations. Put in for controlled hunts annually as a bonus — the lack of points means your odds are the same whether it’s your first or fifteenth application.
New Mexico — Pure Lottery (No Points)
New Mexico runs the simplest system: a pure random lottery with no preference or bonus points.
How it works:
- Every applicant has equal odds regardless of how many years they have applied.
- Outfitter-sponsored applications get a separate pool (approximately 10% of tags).
- Draw odds are purely a function of tags available divided by applicants.
- Some units have surprisingly good odds simply because fewer people apply.
Point cost: N/A — no point system.
Strategy: Apply every year. It costs $12 and your odds are identical whether it’s year 1 or year 20. New Mexico has exceptional elk hunting — the state produces Boone & Crockett bulls consistently from units like 15, 16, 17, and 34. Many hunters apply to New Mexico as a “free roll” every year alongside their point-building states.
Understanding Point Creep
Point creep is the gradual increase in the number of points needed to draw a specific unit. It happens because more hunters enter the system each year than leave it (through drawing or quitting).
How Point Creep Works
Year 1: Top applicants for Unit X have 15 points. All 15-point holders draw. Year 5: More hunters have reached 15 points than there are tags. Now 16-17 points are needed. Year 10: The threshold has crept to 20 points. Hunters who started building points at year 1 still need 5 more years.
Point creep is worst in: Colorado (elk, moose), Wyoming (moose, sheep), Arizona (elk)
Point creep is minimal in: Montana (squared system self-corrects somewhat), New Mexico (no points), Idaho (limited point usage)
Is Building Points Still Worth It?
For many units, yes — but with realistic expectations. Here’s how to evaluate:
- Check the current draw point threshold for your target unit using the Draw Odds Engine.
- Calculate how many years to reach that threshold at current creep rates.
- Multiply years by annual point cost to get your total investment.
- Ask: Is a hunt in this specific unit worth $1,500-3,000+ in accumulated point costs plus 10-20 years of waiting?
For many hunters, the better strategy is targeting mid-tier units that draw at 3-8 points while hunting OTC or general-season tags every year. You hunt annually, build points at a reasonable cost, and draw within 5-8 years instead of 20.
Building a Multi-State Strategy
The smartest elk hunters don’t pin their hopes on one state. They apply across multiple states to maximize the number of tags they draw over a 10-year period.
Example Multi-State Application Strategy
| State | Species | Strategy | Annual Cost | Expected Draw Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Elk | Build points, hunt OTC archery annually | $762 (tag + point) | OTC now; limited draw 8-12 yrs |
| Wyoming | Elk | Apply random + preference pool | $812 | Random possible any year; pref 6-10 yrs |
| Montana | Elk | General tag + build bonus points | $1,002 (tag + point) | General now; premium 8-15 yrs |
| New Mexico | Elk | Pure lottery, apply annually | $572 (if drawn) / $12 (apply) | Any year (lottery luck) |
| Arizona | Elk | Build bonus points long-term | $93.75 (point) | 15-25 years |
| Idaho | Elk | General tag + controlled hunt draw | $588 | General now; controlled varies |
Total annual application cost: ~$280 (applying to all states without tags) States you can actually hunt each year: Colorado (OTC), Montana (general), Idaho (general) = 3 hunts per year if budget allows
This is the power of multi-state application: you’re hunting somewhere every year while simultaneously building toward premium draws in 3-5 states. Over a 10-year period, a hunter running this strategy will draw multiple limited-entry tags while hunting OTC/general every single year.
Build your custom multi-state strategy with the Application Timeline Planner
How to Use Draw Odds Data
Raw draw odds numbers are meaningless without context. Here’s how to read them:
“Draw odds: 5% with 3 points” means that among applicants who had 3 preference/bonus points, 5% drew a tag. This doesn’t mean you have a 5% chance with 3 points this year — it means that was the historical outcome.
Factors that shift odds year to year:
- Number of applicants (changes based on economy, gas prices, tag price increases)
- Number of tags offered (state wildlife agencies adjust annually based on herd counts)
- Point creep (new applicants entering the system)
- Tag price changes (a price hike reduces applicants)
How to use the data:
- Look at the 3-5 year trend, not a single year.
- Compare your point total against the “90% draw threshold” — the point level where 90% of applicants draw.
- Apply for units where your points give you realistic odds in the next 2-3 years — don’t wait for “someday” on a unit that keeps creeping away.
Look up draw odds for any state, unit, and species
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between preference points and bonus points?
Preference points guarantee that the highest-point applicants draw first — patience is rewarded with certainty. Bonus points weight a random draw so higher-point applicants have better odds, but they aren’t guaranteed to draw before lower-point applicants. Colorado and Wyoming (75% pool) use preference-style systems. Montana and Arizona use bonus systems.
Do I lose my preference points when I draw a tag?
In most states, yes. When you draw a tag, your accumulated points for that species are consumed (reset to zero). In Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana, drawing resets your count. This is why point strategy matters — you want to use your points on a hunt that’s worth the investment.
How much does it cost to build preference points?
Annual point costs range from $36.25 (Idaho) to $100 (Colorado, Wyoming, Montana). Over 10 years of point building in Colorado, a nonresident invests $1,000 in points alone — before ever purchasing a tag. Multi-state point building across 4-5 states runs $280-450 per year.
Which state has the best draw odds for elk?
For nonresidents, Idaho and Montana offer the most accessible elk hunting through general/OTC tags that require no draw. Within draw systems, units in Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico with lower demand offer reasonable odds at 3-8 preference points. Arizona and premium Colorado/Wyoming units are the hardest draws, often requiring 15-25+ years.
Can I apply for multiple states in the same year?
Yes. There is no limit on how many states you can apply to. Most serious Western hunters apply to 3-6 states annually. Each state has its own application window, fees, and system. The Application Timeline Planner tracks all deadlines in one place.
What happens if I miss the application deadline?
You lose that year’s chance to draw and to earn a preference/bonus point for that species in that state. In preference states like Colorado, missing one year means you’re permanently one year behind every hunter who applied. Some states allow point-only purchases after the draw deadline, but most do not. Set calendar reminders for every state you apply to.
Should I apply for a trophy unit or an easier draw?
It depends on your goals and time horizon. If you want to hunt elk in the next 3-5 years, target mid-tier units where your points are competitive. If you’re building a 15-20 year plan for a once-in-a-lifetime bull, apply for the premium unit and hunt OTC or general-season tags in the meantime. The worst strategy is applying for a dream unit and not hunting at all while you wait.
How do group applications affect draw odds?
In most states, group applications use the lowest member’s point total. If you have 10 points and your buddy has 2, the group application uses 2 points. This dramatically hurts high-point applicants. The general advice: apply solo for premium units where points matter, and only group-apply for units where everyone in the group has competitive points.
Check draw odds for any state and species